There are two great past-times in Canadian politics: speculating about the next election, and dissecting an election just held.
With the most recent round of federal by-elections now over, the latter is in high gear.
Of course, every political party is hard at work trying to put its own political "spin" on the outcomes. All are busy claiming that the by-election results somehow vindicate their particular visions and interests.
And all four parties can certainly point to numbers to support their particular view.
But what really are the lessons to be learned from these latest expressions of the voters in four very different Canadian ridings?
And who really are the winners and losers?
In my view, in general every party gained something - and every party lost something.
The Harper Conservatives picked up one seat and increased their vote in two other ridings - but they continue their inability to make any inroads in major urban ridings and actually lost ground in one.
The Dion Liberals held on to three of the four seats they previously held - but they are now down one Parliamentary seat and came within 154 votes of losing another riding they have held for decades.
The Greens increased their votes overall and significantly in two ridings - but they were in single digits in two others, and they continue to look like they cannot and will not win a single seat in the House of Commons.
And my own party, the federal New Democrats, performed consistent with expectations, running strong campaigns in constituencies we were never expected to win - but struggled to make gains with voters in these ridings.
But, out of all this contradictory data, I think two clear points do emerge above all others.
First, I think that the extremely low voter turnouts indicate an alarming message of political detachment from Canadian voters.
And second, I think it is very clear that the Liberals under Stephane Dion are in big trouble in this country.
On the first point, the voter participation in these by-elections was shockingly low: 24.4% in Willowdale, 25% in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, 27.9% in Toronto Centre, and 33.9% in Vancouver Quadra.
This averages 27.8%.
So, almost 3 out of 4 Canadians of voting age decided not to participate in our democratic process.
This is a shocking and unusually low turnout.
And I think the reason for this is quite clear.
Voters are very cynical about politics and politicians. They are turned off by political corruption, and tired of dishonest behaviour.
On the federal scene, voters have been inundated with gross misconduct from both Liberal and Conservative governments, going back twenty years.
In the 1980's, voters witnessed the Mulroney Tories attack John Turner for patronage, and then proceed to stuff the bureaucracy with Conservative hacks and fundraisers of all types.
So common were Mr. Mulroney's distortions that he eventually earned the nickname "Lyin' Bryan".
In 1993, voters watched the Chretien Liberals promise to end NAFTA, abolish the GST and establish a national daycare program - and then break every one of these promises for the next 13 years.
Allegations of impropriety in Mr. Chretien's riding of Shawinigan dogged him for years.
In the early 2000's, we all witnessed the disgraceful Liberal Sponsorship scandal. This saw the federal Liberals take millions of our tax dollars and divert them to their supporters.
Some Liberals even went to jail.
Since the minority governments began in 2004, voters have seen both Liberals and Conservatives engage in repeated dishonourable attempts to persuade MP's to betray their constituents by crossing the floor or changing their vote in exchange for personal benefits.
Voters will recall Liberal Ujjal Dosangh engaged in such discussions with Gurmant Grewal.
Voters recently witnessed the same thing with the Conservatives' attempt to influence former MP Chuck Cadman by promises of financial support.
In my own riding, Vancouver Kingsway, in 2006 we saw Liberal David Emerson join the Harper Tories within weeks of getting elected.
The federal Liberals and Conservative parties said and did nothing in protest.
And whatever Mr. Mulroney's claims, the Karlheinz Schreiber affair that saw Mr. Mulroney accept hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash payments is clearly seen by Canadians for what it is: shoddy and sleazy behaviour.
The upshot?
If voters see politicians lie, cheat and bribe - as both the Liberals and Conservatives have been doing for years - they will eventually be so turned off politics that they will refuse to participate.
This appears to have been the case on March 17.
The other main point is that Stephane Dion's lack of leadership is seriously hurting the federal Liberals.
Again, the Liberals went into the by-elections with four seats, and they emerged with three.
In Vancouver Quadra - held by the Liberals for decades and considered their safest seat in Western Canada - the Liberals almost lost.
And there is good reason for this.
Voters have watched Stephane Dion repeatedly say he opposes Conservative policies - and then observe him vote for those very same policies.
Or Canadians have watched the unprecedented and disgraceful spectacle of Liberals continuously walking out of the House of Commons to avoid voting at all.
(By the way, MP's are paid to attend Parliament. They are paid to vote. I think every Liberal should have their pay docked for every vote they intentionally miss.)
Mr. Dion has proved to be muddled in his communications, inconsistent in his policies and cowardly in his strategy.
And Mr. Harper has had a field day in exposing Mr. Dion's weakness.
In the end, Canadians want integrity in their politicians.
They want honesty, consistency and a commitment to the voters that elect them.
They want leadership that puts the citizens ahead of politicians' personal interests.
They don't expect perfection - but they do expect a sincere attempt.
